In part because the pandemic has laid bare the operational vulnerabilities of governments in times of crisis, we pay special attention to US national security interests in this year’s top ten geopolitical risks. As 2021 begins, the first rounds of vaccine rollouts have given the world a sense of optimism, but unfortunately, with the continued discovery of virus variants and uneven impacts of the pandemic, populations should expect the year ahead to look a lot more like 2020: The Sequel than life before the pandemic. A weakened United States would mean less of an emphasis on human rights and maintenance of global order. The Displacement of Traditional Diplomacy. List of topics covered include social, political, economic and environmental issues, including human rights, economy, trade, globalization, poverty, environment and health related issues. The Long Term Geopolitical Impacts of Covid. It has not yet really reached the Global South, for example, or the innumerable pockets of abject misery on the planet in Bangladesh, Yemen, South Sudan, refugee camps in Pakistan or India, Idlib, and so on. The more obvious examples include the Gulf of St. Lawrence, San Francisco Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Galveston Bay and Long Island Sound/New York Bay. The Underappreciated Role of Geopolitics in Cyber Security, The Increasingly Visible Connection Between Climate Change and Political Stability, Digital Disruption 2.0: The Looming Confrontation Between Technology and Open Societies, Without a New Counterterrorism Framework, the Islamic State Threat Will Continue to Grow. foreign policy), and the history of geopolitics. Brazil’s Embraer, for instance, marshalling inputs from over 700 suppliers around the world, relies on the strategic management of its global supply chain for international competitiveness. In 2021, one of the most significant global geopolitical risks will continue to be the pervasiveness of the Islamic State’s ideology and the resulting persistent, worldwide threat of terrorist attacks. Governments and private enterprises must approach geopolitical risk holistically, using both human and data-based sources, in order to capture threats accurately, before they materialize into human or monetary losses. Insurance is not a solution. Less of a U.S. presence on the global stage creates gaps … 4. the Persistent threat of the Islamic State. The number of stalled revolutions around the world is on the rise. To a large degree, the risk inherent in the trends that are shaping the world today comes from the inability of governments to effectively anticipate and manage the coming changes in ways that preserve or create security and prosperity for their citizens. World War II, for example, was an event that changed geopolitics as we knew it. It is assumed that a substantial part of the income from this trade Brazil´s Embraer, India´s Tata, and China´s Lenovo are good examples. Luminae Group is a leading global advisory firm specializing in geopolitics and risk forecasting. The work of Ratzel and Mackinder are early examples of geopolitical writing with an emphasis on the geographic bases of political strategy. The intersection of Climate Change and Political Stability. These TNCs are hubs of regional and global supply chains. Subscribe to our mailing list to receive expert geopolitical intelligence, unparalleled insight, and an insider perspective on global affairs. Expropriation Governments can confiscate assets, nationalize property, breach contracts, impose embargos or prohibit trade with specific countries. For example, during the Vietnam War, U.S. policymakers underestimated the fact that Saigon’s repression, bad governance and corruption contributed to the insurgency. This can be seen in various forms with a wide range of examples such as focusing on environmental factors in making decisions. Top Risks of 2021The GPC in Latin America. Each event carries it own risks, and each risk its own consequences. However, it is important to note how dependent on historical context the evolution and application of the modern geopolitical assumption have been. If Today's Geopolitical Trends Continue, This Is What Our Future Could Look Like. In 11 years, the first nuclear weapon since 1945 will be used in a conflict and China and America will defuse the crisis. After the war, two superpowers emerged: the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. Geopolitics didn't … 2021: Permanent Change is Afoot in Gulf Politics, The Relentlessness of Putin: What 2021 Will Reveal About the Russian Leader’s Staying Power and Vision for the Future of Moscow, Why the United States Must Counter China and Vie for Larger Spheres of Influence in Asia, Restoring the Value of Diplomacy in a New World Order, The Continuing Geopolitical Aftershocks of the COVID-19 Pandemic. As well … The effect of geopolitical risks (GPRs) is found to be heterogeneous across the BRICS stock markets, suggesting that news regarding geopolitical tensions do not affect return dynamics in these markets in a uniform way. Around 2015, a new branch of the critical geopolitics literature appeared, deconstructing and critiquing another new branch of literature, on the geopolitics of renewables. The COVID-19 pandemic introduced a level of volatility into the global economy reminiscent of the economic struggle of the Great Depression and political disruption of WWII. 2021 is poised to be an inflection point in the history of the European Union, and the level of success French President Emmanuel Macron is able to achieve resetting France’s social, economic, and security trajectory will be an indicator, more broadly, of the continent’s future. certain areas—in Afghanistan, for example. India About Blog Global Issues provides insights into global issues that may be misrepresented but are all closely related. By Gregory F. Treverton. Tensions between governing elites and their citizens are reshaping global geopolitics. Unlike the Greater Mississippi Basin, the Great Lakes are not naturally navigable due to winter freezes and obstacles such as Niagara Falls. The US and China: A race For Influence. 9. As always, the challenge of risk forecasting is that human behavior, and more precisely, human whim, remains the element that algorithmic data cannot accurately control. This text is an atlas which provides a map and text describing and analyzing the situation, issues and present status for each of the major current and potential geopolitical flashpoints. In 2021, open societies will find themselves in an increasingly precarious position, as formal political institutions struggle to react effectively to civic mobilization catalyzed by social media platforms and other disruptive digital technologies. Other examples include a banking crisis in Europe that results in market players piling into U.S. Treasuries, which could result in American bond yields falling, a strengthening of the greenback and selling pressure on global equities. In 2021, one of the most significant global geopolitical risks will continue to be the pervasiveness of the Islamic State’s ideology and the resulting persistent, worldwide threat of terrorist attacks. This working paper aims to revitalise geopolitics, reflecting both on the critique of the subject and the strengths that have characterised it for more than a century. Likewise, a looming, determinative confrontation between Big Tech and the governments of a number of open societies, the United States included, presents a chance to seriously revisit and reconstitute the relationship between large, seemingly stateless multinationals and their nations of origin, potentially shifting operational standards in a manner that better serves both national security and profit interests in the long term. Preparedness and comprehensive, systematic risk analysis will be imperative to minimizing losses and maximizing opportunities in 2020. 5. An example of geopolitical risk could include a flare-up of tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran that resulted in a spike in the price of oil. In crisis, there is always opportunity, and on the cusp of a new presidential administration, the United States has a prime window to capitalize on developments across the globe, seizing the moment to expand the long term influence of American commercial enterprise and bolstering its foreign policy prospects in the process. As a result, executives across a range of global industries are starting to take note of the need to get ahead of risk further upstream and to analyze the risk horizon more holistically. Building upon a foundation laid in 2019 and 2020, the United Arab Emirates is poised to capitalize on a year of shifting alliances and strategic maneuvers in the Gulf that is likely to position it as the prime Sunni Arab power broker in Middle Eastern regional politics for decades to come. Global dependence on key transportation systems such as jet aircraft, container vessels, and tankers is growing steadily, building up an increasing array of complex, economically important, and time-sensitive economic subsystems. 5. That such unprecedented upheaval was completely foreign to and unanticipated by almost all people alive today is a testament to the relative stability of previous decades, but also a revealing indicator of the challenges governments will continue to face when it comes to leading populations through adversity. In the coming years, well beyond just 2021, the pandemic will continue to send shockwaves through the global economy, exacerbating not just resource and income disparities between countries, but also further polarizing domestic populations along gender and class lines. To some scholars it appears that in the 21st century geography is largely scenery, all but irrelevant to the most important issues of grand strategy. In 2021, China will continue to seek consolidation of regional influence through transactional diplomacy, and the United States would be wise to take advantage of opportunities in countries on China’s periphery that could advance geostrategic security and commercial interests, all while pushing back against Beijing. Best Political/Geopolitical & Social Thrillers by jeffhchambers | created - 04 Nov 2014 | updated - 17 Jun 2018 | Public Chronological Listing Of Very Highly Rated And Recommended Personal Favorites Refine See titles to watch instantly, titles you haven't rated, etc. In 2021, climate related geopolitical risks are most likely to accelerate along two trend lines: 1) regulatory or legislative changes aimed at fossil fuel intensive industries, and 2) extreme weather events that disrupt supply chains and upend infrastructure. The past four years have witnessed a meaningful departure from the norms and customs that defined international diplomacy in past centuries, leaving Antony Blinken, incoming Secretary of State, with a challenge: how to strike the right balance between embracing the prevailing trends, which have led to a number of indisputably positive developments, and transitioning to a modus operandi that accounts for a wider array of geopolitical concerns and ratchets down tensions in the process. Eastern Europe will face many geopolitical challenges in 2015. Geopolitical Behavior of Russia; China’s Geopolitical Stance Characteristics; Case Study: Sue's Accounting Ethics; Designing and implementing a conflict management system; Ukrainian Crisis: Russia and the West' Tension; The Strait of Hormuz's Geopolitical Significance; The Suez Canal's Geopolitical … Al Qaeda, for example, has been implicated in recent attacks on economic targets such as oil tankers. Geopolitical events can manifest themselves in many ways. US sanctions policy, stalled revolutions, protectionism, digital disruption, climate change, political violence, and other forces of disruption have introduced unprecedented levels of volatility for businesses to navigate. In 2019, business losses due to political risk were higher than ever. Second, there are the Great Lakes. All of this, taken together, is driving a massive shift in the global order. What Are Some Examples of Geopolitical Risk? Some of the worst business disruptions in 2020 will come not from trade wars or terrorist attacks alone, but from the intersection of multiple geopolitical risks. Geopolitics (from Greek γῆ gê "earth, land" and πολιτική politikḗ "politics") is the study of the effects of Earth's geography (human and physical) on politics and international relations. Subscribe to receive our free newsletter with expert geopolitical intelligence, unparalleled insight, and an insider perspective on global affairs. Subscribe to receive our free newsletter with expert geopolitical intelligence, unparalleled insight, and an insider perspective on global affairs. The challenge in risk forecasting, and indeed the key geopolitical threat the world is facing in 2020, is the unpredictability of both black swan events and human behavior. Understanding the Fidels of the World requires Empathy-based Nuance: Embrace and Teach It. Perhaps first among them will be dealing with the consequences of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the Russian-backed insurgency in Ukraine, which has already widened its scope in January. 2. The huge Covid-19 storm is undoubtedly only still in its infancy. Can Emmanuel Macron Save the European Union from Itself? Nowhere is this opportunity more apparent than on China’s periphery. The world is facing an ever-growing number of interconnected geopolitical threats. The Middle East, South and Central Asia, and Europe are all likely to undergo shifts in their balances of power that will define regional political dynamics for decades, with Emirati Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and French President Emmanuel Macron leading pushes for both change and consolidation of influence in their respective spheres. These are very worrying questions, and include geopolitical issues: for example, Mr President, we do not want Europe to end up bordering Iraq, Iran and other countries [...] of that type. Different geopolitical eras can be identified characterized by changes in hegemonic power from the colonial era dominance of the likes of Britain and France, through the USA–USSR rivalry of the Cold War, to the current military dominance of the United States. Geopolitics is simply geographical politics meaning the impact of geography on the entire political spectrum. Luminae Group is a leading global advisory firm specializing in geopolitics and risk forecasting. In 2016 following a failed coup d'état, the Turkish government targeted domestic … Read the Risk →. The full economic, cyclical and structural effects are not quite visible yet, but, in any case, they will be gigantic. Of course, the risks inherent to the aftershocks of the pandemic will not accrue in a vacuum: in 2021 cyber security threats against nation states and private enterprise will mount, largely driven by geopolitical trends, climate change will continue to threaten political stability in wealthy and poor countries alike, the Islamic State will persist as a significant terrorist threat in locales ranging from Europe to Asia, and policy makers, especially those in the West, will struggle to reassert and redefine the role of diplomacy in resolving disputes in an increasingly tense international environment. This part of the globalissues.org web site introduces a number of geopolitical issues, including the arms trade, landmines, children and conflicts, the international criminal court, the need for NATO, foreign policy practices, military expansionsim, arms races and more. Geopolitical research is frequently portrayed as a dead end. 4. the Persistent threat of the Islamic State. Whatever the outcome of the period, the awareness of historical … Top Risks of 2021The GPC in Latin America. Other issues hotly debated in the United States in the late 20th and early 21st centuries include the expansion of rights and protections to minority and historically disadvantaged groups, such as African-Americans, women and gays and lesbians, especially affirmative action and the right of same-sex couples to marry; the degree to which the government should seek to protect the environment from … Risk anticipation and mitigation are critical to stability in the 21st century. Critical geopolitical scholarship continues to engage critically with questions surrounding geopolitical discourses, geopolitical practice (i.e. There is still a great deal of uncertainty around the fall-out from Brexit, American politics remain fractious, and global leadership is in retreat as heads of state from North America to Asia are mired in domestic crises. Water politics, sometimes called hydropolitics, is politics affected by the availability of water and water resources, a necessity for all life forms and human development.. Arun P. Elhance's definition of hydropolitics is "the systematic study of conflict and cooperation between states over water resources that transcend international borders". Read the latest analysis on geopolitical issues today, covering political, economic, military, commodities, energy security & environmental issues. Russia continues to expand its influence, while tension increases between Saudi Arabia and Iran as they fight for supremacy in the Middle East. 10. Nearly all of the aforementioned trends will complicate the US national security horizon in the coming months, but doom and gloom need not be the prevailing sentiments. The popularity of geopolitical theory declined after World War II, both because of its association with Nazi German and imperial Japanese aggression and because the emergence of nuclear explosives and ballistic missiles reduced the significance of geographical factors in … If the experience of 2020 illustrated one thing, it was that having fire insurance does not make the burning down of one’s house an acceptable outcome.

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